Can an ‘October surprise’ really sway elections?
Also: Melania Trump supports abortion rights, Chappell Roan impacts mental health and JD Vance breaks the fourth wall
Is an ‘October surprise’ coming, and will it make a difference?
By Dalia Abdelwahab
Political journalists and enthusiasts are already fixated on whether the election cycle will have a consequential October surprise and what it could be. In fact, former Secretary of State and 2016 Democratic Presidential Candidate Hillary Clinton recently expressed concern about an October surprise that could “distort and pervert” Vice President Kamala Harris - likening it to the “Pizzagate” conspiracy theory that rattled Clinton’s campaign in 2016.
What is an October surprise?
According to Merriam-Webster dictionary, an October surprise is “a significant revelation or event in the month prior to an election that has the potential to shift public opinion about an election candidate and that is often orchestrated to influence the election's outcome.”
This phrase did not enter the world of politics until the 1980 presidential election, which was marked by 1970’s Iran Hostage Crisis, where a group of Iranian students stormed the U.S. Embassy in Tehran to take a group of American students hostage. Ronald Reagan’s campaign manager expressed concerns that then-president (and Reagan opponent) Jimmy Carter would be able to boost his standing in the polls just before Election Day by announcing that a hostage release deal had been brokered - that an “October surprise,” as he called it, would be a much-needed booster for President Carter. The hostages were not released until January 1981, shortly after Reagan’s inauguration, prompting arguments that the Reagan campaign sought to delay negotiations for political benefit.
Other notable October surprises throughout history
2000 - A local Portland, Maine station discovered that Republican George W. Bush had been keeping a secret for 24 years: He had been arrested in 1976 for drunk driving. The arrest took place when he was 30, near his family’s summer home in Kennebunkport, Maine. He was suspended from driving anywhere in the state for 30 days and had to pay a $150 fine on top. Bush ultimately won the 2000 elections, although by a narrow Floridian margin.
2012 - Mother Jones’ David Corn obtained a secretly-recorded video of Republican Mitt Romney suggesting that 47% of the population will vote to re-elect then-President Obama “no matter what” because they are ‘dependent upon government’ and “pay no income tax.” It was true that 46.4% of households did not pay any federal income tax in 2011, but Romney’s quote lacked key context that nearly two-thirds of these same households did pay payroll taxes, or had taxes already deducted from their biweekly paychecks. Romney dropped steadily in the polls after these comments were released, and lost the election.
2016 - Just 11 days before the election, FBI Director James Comey had a surprising change of heart, announcing that he was, after all, going to examine the private email server used by Democratic Presidential Nominee Hillary Clinton. Clinton’s use of a personal email to conduct official business as Secretary of State may have broken rules requiring that records are kept of all official correspondences. Clinton ultimately lost the electoral college - and the election - despite having won the popular vote.
What could the October surprise be for 2024?
It could be difficult to map out a “surprise” that would top an election year full of surprises in and of itself - from President Joe Biden bowing out of the 2024 race following a disastrous presidential debate, to two assassination attempts against former President Donald Trump.
Some are still pointing to a number of external events as potential contenders for the much-coveted title, including the expansion of the Israel-Hamas war in Gaza into Lebanon and Iran launching ballistic missiles in response. The port strike across the East Coast was also thought to be a possible October surprise, but the strike is now over as a tentative deal was reached.
🗳️ Politics
➤Civility and then a clash over Jan. 6: Seven takeaways from the VP debate
Senator JD Vance of Ohio and Gov. Tim Walz of Minnesota sparred over immigration, abortion and foreign policy — and then on Donald Trump’s 2020 election loss. (NYTimes)
Dig Deeper:
↪ VP debate fact-check: What JD Vance and Tim Walz got right, wrong on abortion, immigration (Politifact)
↪ Vance’s “damning non-answer” on the 2020 election exposed the true stakes for democracy in 2024. (Vox)
➤ Melania Trump says she supports abortion rights, putting her at odds with the GOP
Melania Trump revealed her support for abortion rights Thursday ahead of the release of her upcoming memoir, exposing a stark contrast with her husband, Republican presidential nominee Donald Trump, on the crucial election issue. (AP)
➤ Supreme Court's new term takes on ghost guns, porn access and trans care bans
The court's fall docket includes high-profile disputes over age-verification to access pornography online, the marketing of flavored e-cigarettes to kids, regulation of untraceable "ghost guns," and EPA limits on sewage dumped into the Pacific Ocean. (ABC News)
🇺🇸 US News
➤ Hurricane Helene is a humanitarian crisis – and a climate disaster
Scientists at Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory estimate that “climate change may have caused as much as 50% more rainfall during Hurricane Helene in some parts of Georgia and the Carolinas.” (The Guardian)
Dig Deeper:
↪ Helene has become one of the deadliest hurricanes of the modern era (Washington Post)
↪ FEMA Responds to Accusations Money Spent on Migrants (Newsweek)
➤ Dockworkers strike suspended, tentative agreement includes 62% pay raise over 6 years
A historic United States port strike has been suspended and a tentative agreement was reached "on wages," according to the International. The tentative agreement would increase workers’ wages by 62% over the life of the 6-year contract, sources familiar confirm to ABC News. (ABC News)
↪Dig Deeper: Dems, GOP see a common villain in the port fight: Foreign shippers (Politico)
🌎 Around the world
➤ What to know as Israel expands its operations in Lebanon
Israeli airstrikes hammered targets across southern Lebanon and Beirut’s suburbs while its military urged residents to flee more than two dozen Lebanese towns and villages, further signs that Israel is ramping up its operations in Lebanon. (AP)
➤ Iran's leader defends strikes on Israel in rare public speech
Iran's missile strikes on Israel were "correct, logical, and lawful", Ayatollah Ali Khamenei told a vast crowd which had gathered to hear him speak in Tehran on Friday. The country's supreme leader described the attack as the "minimum punishment" for what he called Israel's "astonishing crimes" while leading Friday prayers in the capital, something he has not done since 2020. (BBC)
⚕️Health and wellness
➤ Breast cancer rising among younger women and Asian Americans, report finds
Even as death rates from breast cancer have fallen, rates of new diagnoses continue to tick upwards, according to an American Cancer Society report. (NBC News)
➤ Are trending "cortisol cocktails" really helpful for stress and weight loss?
Also referred to as an "adrenal cocktail," the drink has some variations across social media but mainly consists of orange or lemon juice, coconut water and a bit of sea salt. Experts say there's no evidence this drink can significantly reduce stress or weight by lowering cortisol levels, but the ingredients do offer some nutritional benefits that may give drinkers a boost. (CBS News)
💰Business & Money
➤ 23andMe is on the brink. What happens to all its DNA data?
A spokesperson for 23andMe would not comment on what the company might do with its trove of genetic data beyond general pronouncements about its commitment to privacy. When signing up for the service, about 80% of 23andMe’s customers have opted in to having their genetic data analyzed for medical research. (NPR)
➤ Amazon is hiring 250,000 people across the US as it heads into the holiday season
All seasonal employees earn at least $18 per hour and have access to benefits like health care from the first day on the job. (About Amazon)
🎤 Pop Culture
➤ Sabrina Carpenter jokes she got NYC Mayor Eric Adams indicted — her connection to the scandal, explained
It all goes back to the pop star dancing in between the pews of a Catholic church. (Entertainment Weekly)
➤ Chappell Roan and her fans might change celebrity, toxic fan culture forever
After Roan canceled her All Things Go sets, fans are thinking deeply about mental health and boundaries with celebrities. (Teen Vogue)
📡 On the radar
➤ Couple in a severe Uber crash can’t sue because of an Uber Eats order
A married New Jersey couple that was in a severe accident during an Uber ride can’t sue the company because they and their daughter agreed to arbitration when they accepted the terms of service for a separate Uber Eats order, a court has ruled. (CNN)
➤ Northern lights forecast for northern US, Midwest this week as solar flares increase
Sightings are forecasted along the U.S.-Canada border, but also as far south as Oregon to Pennsylvania, according to the center. The best time to view the auroras will be on Friday, Oct. 4 from around midnight local time going into the early hours of Saturday, Oct. 5. (USA Today)
🎓 College Corner
➤ The elite college students who can’t read books
Many students no longer arrive at college—even at highly selective, elite colleges—prepared to read books. (The Atlantic)
➤ College students already faced barriers to voting — and states are adding more
With roughly a month to go until the presidential election, women on college campuses and women-led voting organizations talk about the realities of get-out-the-vote efforts. (The 19th)
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