Why you should pay attention to the Syrian war’s dangerous new chapter
Also: Romania cancels presidential election, DOGE's ambitious agenda, and Americans are dying younger
Just when it seemed the headlines had moved on, Syria is back in the global spotlight. A civil war many believed was frozen has erupted with new intensity. Syrian rebels have launched a lightning-fast offensive, seizing Aleppo, Syria's second-largest city, from President Bashar al-Assad’s regime. This stunning development raises questions about what it means for Syria’s future, including fears of a possible resurgence of ISIS.
Who are the Syrian rebels?
The offensive was spearheaded by an Islamic militia group called Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), working alongside other rebel factions, some backed by Turkey, under a coalition called "Deterrence of Aggression." Together, they have recaptured significant territory from Assad’s forces. Originally an offshoot of al-Qaeda, HTS has sought to rebrand itself over the years as a more moderate Islamist group and an alternative to Assad’s brutal regime. However, despite distancing efforts, the U.S. and United Nations still classify HTS as a terrorist organization.
Why now?
Since 2011, more than half a million Syrians have died in a conflict that began when Assad’s regime brutally suppressed peaceful pro-democracy protests. While his grip on power once seemed unshakable because of support from Russia and Iran, cracks are starting to show.
Russia’s military is stretched thin because of the war in Ukraine and Iran is entangled in multiple conflicts, from supporting Hamas to battling Israeli forces. With his allies preoccupied, Assad’s forces have become under-resourced and vulnerable. Meanwhile, rebel groups, including HTS, have used this window to regroup and refine their strategies.
Why this matters?
While many Syrians long for Assad’s departure, his potential collapse raises pressing questions, chief among them: who will fill the power vacuum? Concerns are mounting over whether HTS, still designated as a terrorist organization, can govern inclusively. The memory of ISIS’s control over vast parts of the region remains fresh, fueling fears of a similar resurgence if Syria descends further into chaos, creating the conditions for extremist groups to exploit.
What is the U.S. saying?
The U.S. State Department has reaffirmed its support for Syria’s sovereignty while closely monitoring ISIS activity. Military officials warn that ongoing instability could create fertile ground for extremist groups. However, direct intervention appears unlikely, as U.S. policy in the Middle East has shifted toward a "hands-off but watch closely" approach.
The unfolding situation presents a dilemma for Washington. As Assad redirects his forces to counter the rebels in the northwest, ISIS could exploit the resulting power vacuums elsewhere. For the U.S., this raises thorny questions about whether Washington should engage with HTS, despite its contentious past, and what role the U.S. would play in shaping Syria’s future if Assad’s government falls.
Dig deeper:
↪ What’s happening in Syria? How an old conflict in the Middle East erupted again (NBC News)
↪ Why has the Syrian civil war lasted 12 years? (BBC)
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🎓 College Corner
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📡 On the radar
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