What Trump’s second term could mean for U.S. foreign policy

A closer look at major policy shifts in the Middle East, Ukraine, Asia, Mexico and Latin America

With Donald Trump reclaiming the title of President-Elect, the world is bracing for shifts in U.S. foreign policy. This election season, foreign policy played a more significant role than in previous years, with voters responding to rising tensions in Eastern Europe and the Middle East. Trump centered his campaign on the bold, digestible claim that only he could bring an end to these conflicts. His pitch resonated with communities like Polish-Americans, American Jews, and Arab-Americans, many of whom feel increasingly disillusioned with the Biden administration’s handling of these issues.

Here’s a closer look at what we might expect in a second Trump administration:

The Middle East

Trump has already signaled that he wants the current Gaza conflict to end “quickly,” and polls show he’s popular among Israelis. While rumors circulated that Lebanese-American billionaire Massad Boulos (Tiffany Trump’s father-in-law) might be stepping in as an envoy for a Lebanon ceasefire, he denied this. Still, Boulos has been a key figure in Trump’s Arab-American outreach.

There’s also talk that Trump’s self-styled “Deal of the Century” might return. This proposal, controversial for its rejection of East Jerusalem as the Palestinian capital and its stance on West Bank settlements, was widely criticized and ultimately rejected by Palestinian leaders.

And then there’s Iran: expect a hawkish stance to return, likely including a re-freezing of the U.S.-Iran Nuclear Deal, which he ended during his first term. Relations with the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries—like Saudi Arabia—may also deepen, especially if Trump pushes for a historic normalization deal between Israel and Saudi Arabia, though the latter insists it won’t happen without Palestinian statehood.

Ukraine

Trump’s campaign has made the bold claim that he’ll end the Russia-Ukraine war within 24 hours of taking office. He hasn’t specified how, but insists the war would’ve been avoided if he were in power. His stance on military aid to Ukraine has been critical, raising questions about whether he would continue U.S. support.

Notably, Trump’s first impeachment involved his pressure on Ukrainian President Zelenskyy to investigate Joe Biden and his son, Hunter. Now, Zelenskyy has been seeking greater NATO support and accelerated membership for Ukraine, aiming for more security assurances. But under Trump, U.S. support for NATO and Ukraine may face new limits, especially as skepticism grows over the sustainability of long-term aid.

Asia

Trump’s agenda in Asia starts with tariffs. He’s promised a sweeping 60% tariff on Chinese exports, a move aimed at slowing China’s economic momentum. This could drive some Taiwanese companies to shift production away from China. But his stance on defending Taiwan remains unclear, though he’s hinted Taiwan should “pay” for U.S. protection. These mixed signals have left some Taiwanese citizens feeling uneasy.

Additionally, Trump-era visa restrictions may tighten, with likely denials for Chinese students at certain universities—policies left in place by the Biden administration. All of this points to a tough stance on China, but one with implications for the entire region.

Mexico and Latin America

Tariffs won’t stop with China—Trump has also vowed to impose them on Mexico unless it cracks down on fentanyl smuggling into the U.S. This is part of his promise for a strict approach to immigration, including mass deportations. Mexico’s newly elected President Claudia Sheinbaum will likely face immediate pressure from Trump on these issues.

Interestingly, support from Latinx voters in the U.S. for Trump has risen this cycle, fueled by discontent over rising immigration. Meanwhile, Brazil and other Latin American nations are exploring ways to move away from dollar-based trade. If Brazil’s involvement with BRICS (an alliance with Russia, India, China, and South Africa) leads to a new trading currency, the dominance of the U.S. dollar could be challenged.

Trump’s re-election has re-energized his brand of “America First” foreign policy. For better or worse, a second Trump term promises to shake up global dynamics across the board.