🔎 Will Israel and Hezbollah stumble into war?

Also: Americans freed, Kamala is official, and how Simone Biles changed America

Hezbollah rockets fired toward northern Israel on Thursday. 📸:X/@Israel

In recent weeks, talk about all-out conflict between Israel and Hezbollah in Lebanon has increased raising fears of more instability in the Middle East.

Some Israeli officials have suggested using force against Hezbollah, with far-right ministers even pushing for an invasion of Lebanon. These political figures seem eager to escalate the situation, making the region more tense.

Hezbollah is part of the “axis of resistance,” a group of Iranian-backed militants, and its status depends on opposing Israel. Hezbollah and Israel have a long history of conflict with complex rules. From 1996 to 2000, the ‘April Understanding’ kept things relatively calm, with both sides avoiding attacks on civilians. However, this fragile peace broke down in 2006, leading to a devastating war. Since then, Hezbollah has rebuilt and gained extensive combat experience in the Syrian civil war.

By mid-2023, Hezbollah had become a formidable force, with over 100,000 rockets and significant military capabilities. Its alliances with Iranian proxies in the region like Hamas and the Houthis in Yemen have strengthened its deterrence against Israel.

Hezbollah’s leader, Hassan Nasrallah, has maintained a cold peace with Israel, warning against any assassinations on Lebanese soil. However, Hamas' October 7 attack and Israel’s retaliations in Gaza have strained this balance. Hezbollah has launched rockets into northern Israel to support Hamas, displacing over 60,000 Israelis.

Despite the provocations, Hezbollah’s response has been relatively restrained. They understand that a full-scale war with Israel would be disastrous for Lebanon, which is already facing economic collapse and widespread dissatisfaction with Hezbollah’s role in regional conflicts.

The delicate balance between Israel and Hezbollah was shattered last week when a rocket killed 12 children at a soccer field in Majdal Shams, a Druze village in the Israeli-occupied Golan Heights. Israel blamed Hezbollah, which denied responsibility.

Israel’s response was swift and harsh. Despite warnings from the Biden administration, Israel conducted an airstrike in a densely populated neighborhood on the outskirts of Beirut, killing a senior Hezbollah commander, a woman, and two children. This action enraged the Lebanese government.

The tension skyrocketed, with airlines canceling flights to Beirut and the U.S. State Department advising Americans to leave Lebanon.

Adding to the chaos, Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh was killed in Tehran during his visit for the inauguration of Iran’s new president, Masoud Pezeshkian. Reportedly, Israel launched both strikes in response to the Hezbollah attack that killed the children in the Golan Heights. Following Haniyeh’s death, Iran’s supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, declared that “it is our duty to take revenge.”

The assassination on Iranian soil was a severe blow to Iran’s prestige. Following April’s missile strike and counterstrike between Israel and Iran, this direct strike against Haniyeh in Iran establishes a new normal of direct strikes between Israel and Iran.

These are the kinds of attacks the U.S. has been urging Israel to avoid. Washington is concerned about whether Israel has scared Iran and its proxies into submission or if it has triggered an inevitable escalation.

A permanent cease-fire between Israel and Hamas might help prevent a war in Lebanon. Hezbollah has suggested that it might hold fire if Israel agrees to a cease-fire with Hamas in Gaza. Amos Hochstein, Biden’s mediator, has been working tirelessly to de-escalate tensions.

But despite diplomatic efforts, a cease-fire in Gaza remains elusive. Haniyeh was a main negotiator in talks about a deal that would see a temporary ceasefire in Gaza in exchange for Hamas releasing the rest of the hostages in Gaza. His assassination complicates that. Yahya Sinwar, the Hamas leader in Gaza and mastermind behind the October 7 attack, remains alive and holds sway over any hostage deal and ceasefire. While this might not kill the deal in play, it will likely delay it.

The U.S. continues to mediate, using its influence to restrain Israeli actions and encourage Hezbollah’s pragmatic approach. While the situation remains tense, there is still hope for a tenuous but desperately needed peace in the region.

Dig deeper: 

↪ Hamas military leader Mohammad Deif, one of the architects of Oct. 7 attack, confirmed killed by Israel (NBC News) 

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🌎 Around the world

➤  Evan Gershkovich and Paul Whelan freed by Russia, and land on US soil.

The Americans were part of an extraordinary 24-prisoner exchange involving Russia, the United States and several other countries, the largest of its kind since the Cold War and one in which President Biden was directly involved, the White House said earlier Thursday. (ABC News) 

President Biden greets American journalist Evan Gershkovich as he returned with Paul Whelan to American soil. 📸: X/@WhiteHouse

➤  How disinformation fed a far-right riot after a deadly stabbing in England

Violence erupted in Southport England, already traumatized by the stabbing attack on a children’s dance class, after false rumors circulated on social media that the suspect was an migrant. (NYTimes)

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🗳️ Politics

➤  Donald Trump falsely suggests Kamala Harris misled voters about her race 

The Republican former president wrongly claimed that Harris, the first Black woman and Asian American to serve as vice president, had in the past only promoted her Indian heritage. (Associated Press) 

📸: Pool

➤ Harris energizes Gen Z voters who planned to sit out 2024 election

Young voters who’d grown disenchanted with Biden appear eager to back the new Democratic nominee. Some are still watching her next moves. (Bloomberg) 

↪ Dig Deeper: Can memes elect Harris? These Gen Z activists think so -- and are teaching others how to make them (CNN) 

➤ Kamala Harris formally chosen as Democratic nominee

US Vice-President Kamala Harris has passed the threshold to clinch the Democratic presidential nomination in a vote of party delegates. (BBC)

➤  Biden is backing major Supreme Court reforms. Here's what they would do

President Biden announced proposals to reform the Supreme Court after the Court, which enable ethics rules for the nation's highest court. The move comes after the Court, which has a 6-3 conservative majority, issued a series of landmark decisions upending longstanding rulings on abortion, affirmative action in higher education and federal regulatory power. (CBS News)

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🥇Olympics

➤ War in Gaza casts dark cloud over Olympics

The war in Gaza is testing the Olympic spirit of peace and unity in Paris. (Zivvy) 

➤ What to know about the gender fight in Olympic boxing

Neither Algeria’s Imane Khelif nor Taiwan’s Lin Yu-ting are making their Olympic debuts. Both boxers already competed in the 2020 Olympics in Tokyo, where they were eliminated in the quarterfinals and round of 16 of their respective weight classes. But that hasn’t stopped their appearances in Paris from causing a stir — critics claim that they’re both actually “men.” (TIME) 

Imane Khelif after winning an Olympic match in Paris. 📸: X/@imane_khelif_10

➤ Simone Biles tells critics to not ‘comment on a black girl’s hair’ amid Paris Olympics heatwave: ‘just don’t’

Despite the high temperatures affecting Paris, France, Biles just won her eighth Olympic medal after leading the U.S. gymnastics team to gold on Tuesday. (Complex) 

📸: Instagram/@SimoneBiles

➤ Opinion | Three big ways Simone Biles changed America

Thanks to Simone Biles, it’s no longer considered a weakness to prioritize mental health. Biles has transformed gymnastics from a girls’ to a women’s sport. She’s also helped diversify the sport, inspiring young gymnasts of all backgrounds to compete. (Washington Post) 

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⚕️Health and wellness

➤ Millennials and Gen Xers face higher risk of 17 cancers than previous generations, study suggests

Among adults born between 1920 and 1990, there is a significant difference between each generation in the incidence of cancer rates and cancer types, including breast, colon and rectal, pancreatic and uterine cancers, according to the study published Wednesday in the journal The Lancet Public Health. (CNN) 

➤ US sees rise in suicide rates among preteens, especially young girls

Suicide rates among preteens aged 8 to 12 years in the United States rose by an average of 8.2% annually from 2008 to 2022 and were marked by a disproportionate increase among girls, according to a new study. (Reuters) 

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👩‍💻 Technology

➤ Google upgrades Search to combat deepfakes and demote sites posting them

The company is also expanding privacy protections for users. Here's how. (ZDNet) 

➤ Trolls used her face to make fake porn. There was nothing she could do.

Sabrina Javellana was a rising star in local politics — until deepfakes derailed her life. (NYTimes) 

📸: Haruka Sakaguchi for The New York Times

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🎓 College Corner

➤ 70 percent of college students say speech can be as damaging as physical violence

A new survey from the Knight Foundation found that more than 1 in 4 college students agreed schools should prohibit "speech they may find offensive or biased." (reason) 

➤ Students weigh ethics of using AI for college applications

According to recent data from the education research organization foundry10, about a third of college applicants in 2023-24 acknowledge using an AI tool for help in writing admissions essays. (Government Technology) 

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🍿Pop Culture

➤ Eminem called out his alter ego Slim Shady for punching down, targeting marginalized communities, and ruining his life in a bizarre new video

The rapper also surprised fans by praising Taylor Swift while dragging himself. (Buzzfeed News) 

📸: Complex / Via youtube.com

➤ Why Robert Downey Jr.'s Doctor Doom payday is inciting backlash

Downey is expected to play the main villain rather than the lead Avenger. People have mixed feelings about the casting — not to mention the actor’s huge paycheck. (Yahoo) 

Robert Downey Jr. takes off his mask at Comic-Con to reveal he will be playing Doctor Doom for Marvel Studios. (📸: Jesse Grant/Getty Images for Disney)

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📡 On the radar

➤ Fires burning at ‘full tilt’ across the Western U.S. stretch resources

The sheer number of fires currently burning in Western states has threatened to overwhelm firefighting resources at a dizzying rate early in the season. (NYTimes)  California wildfire activity is 2,816% higher this year, with 29 times the amount of land burned (CBS News) 

➤ Here is what you need know about Iowa's 6-week abortion ban that is now in effect

The so-called "fetal heartbeat ban" prohibits an abortion once the first sights of cardiac activity can be detected in a pregnancy. That can occur as early as six weeks of pregnancy — or just two weeks after the first missed period. (Des Moines Register)   

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